While the past few weeks in Danish politics have seen the Conservative People’s Party (Det Konservative Folkeparti) and the Danish People’s Party (Dansk Folkeparti) celebrating their newfound tailwinds, one party on the right is in crisis mode.
Venstre has historically (aside from a period in the 1980s and 1990s) been the leader of the blue bloc of right-wing parties. It has led many governments, most significantly under Anders Fogh Rasmussen in the noughties.
However, a series of splits and fractures in the blue bloc, internal rifts, and a lack of a broader mission statement has left the party weak and in disarray.
On Monday, Voxmeter polling for Ritzau found that the party was the smallest in the blue bloc if we ignore the effectively-collapsed Citizens’ Party (Borgernes Parti). This poll follows a general trend of other polls in recent weeks.
In the poll, Venstre came in at 6.6% of the vote, down from 10.1% at the election earlier in the year.
The other blue bloc parties came in as follows: the Danish People’s Party with 12.5%, Liberal Alliance with 10.5%, the Conservative People’s Party with 9.7%, and the Denmark Democrats (Danmarksdemokraterne) with 6.9%.
A party split in three
Tracing the crisis to its origin is difficult.
Some would argue it starts with a classical liberal counter-movement against the leadership of Anders Fogh Rasmussen, which could be given some of the credit for the founding of Liberal Alliance.
Others might point to the internal conflict around party leadership following Fogh Rasmussen leaving the post to be Secretary General of NATO. This saw his successor Lars Løkke Rasmussen in constant internal conflict with deputy leader Kristian Jensen.
However, the most tangible start to the crisis takes place in 2022 when two of the party’s largest personalities create new political parties.
This included former Venstre leader and Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen founding the Moderates (Moderaterne) following his effective toppling as party leader.
It also included the former deputy leader Inger Støjberg founding the Denmark Democrats after falling out with Venstre for its support of her impeachment which subsequently led to her being sentenced to jail.
Løkke Rasmussen would take some of the more moderate members and voters with him to the centre and Støjberg took with her many rural and more national conservative members and voters.
An ill-fated role in government
In the 2022 general election, Venstre, under the leadership of Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, insisted it would not participate in a grand coalition government over the political centre led by the Social Democrats.
However, after long-drawn negotiations, Venstre decided to participate in what would be known as the SVM-government: a grand coalition over the political centre led by the Social Democrats (and with participation from the Moderates).
This government quickly became unpopular due to its early decision to remove the public holiday Great Prayer Day (Store bededag).
Venstre’s participation also suffered from Ellemann-Jensen’s battle with stress which led to a longer sick leave, an ill-fated attempt to return, and a dramatic exit from politics altogether.
His successor Troels Lund Poulsen, by all accounts a talented behind-the-scenes political operator, has failed to cut through to the public.
This was particularly clear during the Greenland crisis at the start of 2026 when US President Donald Trump threatened to invade Greenland.
Here, Prime Minister and Social Democrat (Socialdemokratiet) leader Mette Frederiksen and Foreign Minister and Moderate leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen saw immense polling boosts, while Lund Poulsen (despite his work as Defence Minister) didn’t manage to capitalise.
So in the 2026 general election, the party received its worst-ever result taking only 10.1% of the vote and decided to go into opposition rather than seriously consider another grand coalition.
Struggles in opposition
However, the still short stint in opposition has not been particularly successful for the party. This is primarily due to its failure to define its own policies on agriculture and the environment; a big issue for a party which has historical roots in Danish agriculture.
This accumulated in August when the party formally voted in favour of the controversial fertiliser law that would see new, significant quotas put on farmers’ nitrate emissions, limiting fertiliser use.
Here, five out of eighteen members in the party’s parliamentary group voted against the party line, including Søren Gade: a giant within the party who has also served as Speaker of the Folketing since 2022.
This has put massive pressure on the leadership, especially on Troels Lund Poulsen, who many analysts and commentators suggest may have to resign in the not-too-distant future.
Prime Minister Morten Messerschmidt
The party’s difficulties leave a rather significant power vacuum in the blue bloc.
If Venstre were to get the fewest votes out of any right-of-centre party, it would be difficult to imagine the party leading the next government. But there’s no obvious alternative.
Liberal Alliance’s leader Alex Vanopslagh is one option. Though a cocaine scandal earlier in the year and a stagnation of his party’s fortunes, speak against it.
The Conservatives’ leader Mona Juul could be another option. However, conflicts with the Danish People’s Party and the still relatively humble polling numbers make this less likely.
And finally then, there’s the man a lot of people are talking about: the Danish People’s Party’s leader Morten Messerschmidt who finds himself charging ahead in polls. However, the most right-wing party leading a government relying on support from more moderate parties still seems like a bit of a stretch.
If the blue bloc wants a serious chance of winning the next election, however, they will need to find an answer to this question.
